Afbeelding
Last year in April and May CELTH published four scenarios for the international visitor economy's recovery from the pandemic. A team of researchers from the universities of applied sciences of HZ, BUas and NHL Stenden/ETFI tracked international publications from experts in various domains. From these they have, step by step, derived two core uncertainties for the recovery of the visitor economy. Core uncertainties are uncertainties which have a high level of impact because they may form a tipping point in the complex system of visitor economics. Reaching one of these tipping points may result in the system not being able to recover to the prior situation (recovery, bounce back) but to reach a different equilibrium. The two core uncertainties which have been established are: the length and depth of the pandemic and the crisis in the visitor economy respectively, and the attitude of consumers and travellers.
Two uncertain dimensions
The uncertainty of two dimensions is made explicit by identifying two plausible extremes for both dimensions, which indicate the range within which these two dimensions can develop within the set time frame, three to five years in this case. The combination of the most extreme forms of both dimensions provide the framework for four scenarios. In this way, they reflect the side-lines of the visitor economy and tourism playing field in which these can develop, just like the edges of a pool table setting the boundaries of the playing field.
One scenario points to the recovery of tourism to the previous state (business as usual), the other three refer to a new equilibrium for the visitor economy, of which one (business as unusual) is the most extreme. The other scenarios are the 'survival of the fittest' and 'responsible tourism' scenarios.
Faster than thought possible
Even though many of us would like to see a recovery to the situation prior to the pandemic, the business-as-usual scenario, we have to take the developments described in the other scenarios into account. Please note that the scenarios are not predictions, but that they explore the elements of a possible future visitor economy. The world which influences the visitor economy is changing fast, maybe faster than we thought possible. Possibly the pandemic has given this change an additional push.
CELTH was invited to present its scenario study through various platforms. Not only to companies, industry organisations, conferences and national and local media in the Netherlands, but also at meetings in the UK, US, Brazil, New Zealand and Indonesia.
OECD points out resilience
On Monday 21 October 2021 scenario co-author Albert Postma presented the scenarios to the OECD (Organisation for Economic Collaboration and Development) Tourism Committee, in front of over 100 representatives of international organisations (OECD, EU, UNESCO, ETOA) and countries from around the globe. To prepare for this summit the final report was shared with all members of the Tourism Committee. It was requested to emphasise the relationship between the scenarios and the visitor economy's resilience. The resilience is about the degree to which the visitor economy is able to respond to changes and to resist forces which try to destabilise it. Stability is also an important theme on CELTH's research agenda - conscious destinations.
The presentation took place in the time slot in which the OECD Heath Division (Francesca Colombo), ETOA (Tim Fairhurst), WTTC (Virginia Messina) and various countries exchanged information about the state of recovery and restoration plans. In the subsequent discussion various attendees took the opportunity to share their vision on the recovery after the crisis.
From the EU, Eric Philippart (European Committee senior expert) has asked which of the four scenarios is the most likely. And if we will support the sector in developing the prerequisites to prepare them for the transformation scenario. Even though various signals point towards the business-as-usual scenario, the world-wide vaccination level will stand in the way of a full recovery of long-haul travel, among other things. The OECD Health Unit's presentation does show, however, that the world-wide vaccination level shows a gradual improvement, but it also shows that we are still in the middle of the pandemic.
Elements from other scenarios
Even though a return to what was known as normal seems promising, we will have to consider elements from the other scenarios for the medium and long term. In the words of Switzerland's representative: 'We will have to think beyond the urgency of the restoration work and map the pandemic's consequences for the medium and long term. Our strategies should be adjusted to this.' He considers CELTH's scenarios as a good starting point.
