What will the future of the visitor economy look like after the COVID-19 crisis?

28-04-2020

We have developed four future scenarios for the visitor economy after the COVID-19 crisis. The exploratory scenarios are a first step in working on future-proofing hospitality industry and sustainable destinations in dialogue with entrepreneurs, financials, governments, DMOs and knowledge institutions. Will it remain "business as usual" or will it become "survival of the fittest"? Or will the crisis lead to "business as unusual" with a visitor economy in transition or responsible tourism? And what are the implications of this?

Exploratory scenarios offer a long-term perspective

Within CELTH, ETFI specialises in scenario planning in the hospitality sector. We use exploratory scenarios that outline a longer-term perspective. Such scenarios paint a plausible picture of the situation that the sector could encounter. It can be used as a basis for a dialogue between entrepreneurs, financiers, governments, DMOs and knowledge parties. It can also be used for making strategic choices for future-proofing destinations and the sector.

Visitor economy in 2025

We believe that the visitor economy situation in 2025 will mainly be determined by the length and depth of the crisis. It depends on whether we will become a society where individualism continues to reign supreme or whether the collective interest becomes more prominent. The combination of both leads to four future scenarios:

  • Scenario 1: Business as usual - continued growth in the visitor economy
  • Scenario 2: Survival of the fittest - collapsed visitor economy
  • Scenario 3: Business as unusual - visitor economy in transition
  • Scenario 4: Responsible Tourism - transformed visitor economy

These scenarios provide insights into the possible playing field of tomorrow and can help to prepare us for the future. When we realise that the future may contain elements of each of the scenarios, then they would serve as inspiration for strategies and actions to prepare us for all possible scenarios.

Please find more information about the future scenarios that we have developed in the file below.

Four future scenarios for the visitor economy after corona