Projects
Living Environment • 6 min read

The impact of climate change on tourism supply and demand

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Climate change is affecting European tourism more rapidly and profoundly than many destinations had previously anticipated. Summers are becoming hotter, seasons are shifting, and extreme weather conditions are increasingly causing disruptions to tourism infrastructure. At the same time, traveller behaviour, market dynamics and investment decisions are lagging far behind these real-time changes. National Tourism Organisations (NTOs) are therefore faced with the challenge of developing future-proof strategies whilst the knowledge base remains fragmented and often perception-driven.

With this project, commissioned by the European Travel Commission, The Travel Foundation, CELTH (BUas, NHL Stenden/ETFI) and Risklayer GmbH are joining forces to develop a robust, data-driven and practice-oriented understanding of how climate change is transforming the demand, supply and competitiveness of European tourist destinations.

Objective

This project aims to help NTOs navigate these emerging challenges by examining how climate change is likely to influence tourism supply and demand across Europe. It will provide actionable insights into shifting travel patterns, risks to tourism assets, and opportunities for diversification and deseasonalisation. The project should also investigate short- and medium-term scenarios (e.g. 5 to 10 years) across different destination types—including mountain, coastal, rural, and urban areas—to understand how impacts and adaptation needs may vary geographically. The analysis will further explore the implications for policy, marketing, and stakeholder coordination, offering practical approaches for integrating climate considerations into tourism strategies.

Approach

The project consists of two closely interlinked phases. In the first phase, the existing knowledge base is systematically mapped out, including relevant knowledge gaps. Themes examined from the demand side include travel patterns, choice of destination, heat stress, seasonal shifts, the consequences of climate change for various market segments (including long-haul) and the differences between perceived and actual tourism flows. On the supply side, attention is focused on the vulnerability of tourism infrastructure and services, the impact on natural and cultural assets, resource pressures, differences by destination typology, changing investment patterns and business strategies because of climate change. The insights will be tested and refined during an interactive workshop with ETC members. In phase 2 we anticipate generating new insights where evidence is currently lacking. We expect to deliver actionable guidance for NTOs adapting to climate change impacts on supply and demand.

Results

Depending on the findings of the literature review, we expect we will deliver both analytical insights and practical tools for NTO’s, including:

  • An integrated research report with typology-specific analyses for urban, coastal, mountain and natural regions.
  • Scenarios providing insight into robust risks and opportunities present in all climate scenarios, as well as specific risks dependent on supply and demand dynamics.
  • A European climate risk profile that can be used for policy-making and strategic planning.
  • the NTO Adaptive Capacity Assessment Tool, a diagnostic tool enabling NTOs to assess their own climate readiness in areas such as governance, data access and innovation culture.
  • Strategic advice for NTOs, focused on concrete actions for the next 5–10 years, divided into ‘no-regret’ actions – measures that make sense in any climate scenario – and conditional options that depend on specific scenario developments.
  • Knowledge sharing via a webinar, an executive summary and presentation materials.

These outputs help NTOs to integrate climate resilience into their policy, marketing, product development and stakeholder coordination.

 Partners

  • Travel Forward
  • CELTH
  • Breda University of Applied Sciences
  • NHL Stenden Hogeschool
  • European Tourism Futures Institute
  • Risklayer GmbH

Team

  • Ben Lynam (Travel Forward)
  • Terry Brown (Travel Forward)
  • Caroline Bremner (Travel Forward)
  • Noël Middelhoek (NHL Stenden / ETFI)
  • Bernadett Papp (NHL Stenden / ETFI)
  • Nina Nesterova (BUas / CSTT)
  • Jos van der Sterren (CELTH)
  • Annika Maier (Risklayer)
  • James Daniell (Risklayer)
  • Andreas Schäfer (Risklayer)

Planning

February – September 2026

Status

Project ongoing.