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Motivation
In 2018, as a building block of Perspective 2030, the Netherlands Bureau of Tourism & Congresses (NBTC) made a forecast of the expected development of inbound tourism to the Netherlands until 2030. The inbound tourism to the Netherlands was expected to grow by 50% by 2030. Since the coronavirus pandemic tourism numbers seem to rebound quickly although some segments are still in the process of recovering. Therefore, in the tourism field, there is a great need for a new forecast that provides insight into the expected development of tourism in the Netherlands until 2035. This forecast should not only provide insight into the expected development of inbound tourism to the Netherlands, but also of domestic tourism. Moreover, there is a need to regionalise the forecast, including the Dutch national level as well as the provincial level. Including domestic tourism and regionalising the forecast are additional to the 2018 forecast.
Goal
The project aims to make a forecast for tourism in the Netherlands that provides insight into the expected development of tourism in and to the Netherlands, broken down into the individual provinces, until 2035. The forecast will include at a provincial level a high, normal, and low variant. Furthermore, the study has to raise awareness about the results of the forecast.
Approach
The researchers will use for national forecasting several methods such as an extrapolative approach and the method of causal forecasting. The third approach is to use qualitative expertise as well as desk research to refine these forecasts, discussing the assumptions underneath. This forecast will provide a quantitative insight into the expected development of tourism, both inbound and domestic. The forecast will be limited to just one single number. The forecast will include a bandwidth in which the expected development of tourism will take place.
Based on the national forecast, a separate forecast is made for each of the 12 Dutch provinces. They will take into account the current visitor mix in a province. In each province the researchers will identify in (group)interviews large-scale changes in tourism supply and tourism policy. The interviews have the purpose of identifying developments that have a very significant impact and discussing/assessing the extent to which these influence visitor numbers. The calculations from the national forecast are then applied to the current / changing visitor mix in each province.
To make sure that the new forecast will be interpreted in the right manner, the partners will make a factsheet for the Netherlands and for each province, as well as a short guideline on how to use the forecasts.
Partners
NHL Stenden / ETFI
NBTC
HZ University of Applied Sciences
Project team
Stefan Hartman (ETFI/CELTH)
Diana Korteweg Maris (HZ)
Marieke Politiek (NBTC)
Planning
February – September 2024
Status
Ongoing.
