Envisioning Tourism in 2030: on target to net zero

By 2030, the tourism sector must emit 50% less greenhouse gases and reduce them to zero by 2050. The urgency is felt in the sector, and small steps are made at company level, but there is a lack of insight and overview of effective measures at global level.

Motivation

By 2030, the tourism sector must emit 50% less greenhouse gases and reduce them to zero by 2050. The urgency is felt in the sector, and small steps are made at company level, but there is a lack of insight and overview of effective measures at global level.

Objective

This study focuses on the development of a necessary mix of actions and interventions that the tourism sector can undertake to achieve the goal of a 50% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 towards zero emissions by 2050. The study contributes to a better understanding of the paths that the tourism sector can take to achieve this and their implications for the sector. The aim of the report is to spark discussion, ideas and, above all, action.

The study provides a tool that positively engages the sector in the near and more distant future, inspires discussion, generates ideas, and drives action. In addition, there will be a guide that shows the big picture and where the responsibilities lie for the reduction targets. Finally, the researchers come up with recommendations for policymakers, companies, and lobbyists at an international and European level.

Relationship with other studies

This study builds on previous studies by the Center of Expertise in Leisure, Tourism, and Hospitality (CELTH), and the European Tourism Futures Institute (NHL Stenden|ETFI), Breda University of Applied Sciences, and HZ University of Applied Sciences into four post-covid scenarios for the leisure, tourism and hospitality sector and the joint study by CELTH, Breda University of Applied Sciences, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences and the European Travel Commission that focused on sustainable travel behavior during the pandemic. In addition, this project builds on the GTTMdyn model developed by Professor Paul Peeters of the Sustainability, Tourism, and Transport (CSTT) of Breda University of Applied Sciences.

Approach

In part 1 of the study, desk research is used to lay the foundation for the study. Here, the contribution of tourism to global greenhouse gas emissions is mapped out, as well as the image and reputation of the sector on the ecological dossier. In addition, this section describes which initiatives in terms of, among other things, coalitions and declarations have already been taken on a global scale to form a united front against climate change.

In part 2, 40 actions and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the sector are evaluated in a simulation. For this simulation, the GTTMdyn simulation model is used which works on a global scale and shows the effect of measures on emissions, tourism, transport, economy, and behaviour. In this simulation, the researchers can 'test' measures and learn from mistakes. This part will be concluded with a workshop with industry experts to reflect on the results of the simulation.

In part 3, the various actions that should lead to the reduction targets are combined into so-called 'pathways'. All pathways achieve the emission reduction targets of -50% in 2030 and zero in 2050. These pathways are then further analyzed on (1) the conditions necessary to implement the mix of actions (deployment, technological progress, business model innovation, behavior change, investments, etc.), (2) the consequences of taking adaptive actions ((sub)sector-specific implications, costs, sacrifices, social and political acceptance, etc.) and (3) the implications in the global context (the contribution of tourism to global climate action and vice versa).

Part 4 outlines the consequences of possibly not achieving the goal. With this, the researchers want to send a warning signal to stakeholders who may be resistant to participating in the transition.

Partners

European Tourism Futures Institute (NHL Stenden|ETFI)

Breda University of Applied Sciences (BUas)

Netherlands Bureau for Tourism and Congresses (NBTC)

The Travel Foundation

Project team

Bernadett Papp – NHL Stenden | ETFI

Paul Peeters – Center for Sustainable Transport & Tourism/BUas

Jasper Heslinga – NHL Stenden | ETFI

Planning

The study runs from June 2022 to February 2023.

Status

Completed

Results

The final report can be downloaded from the Travel Foundation's website. An extensive summary on the CELTH site.