How tourism can grow in a climate-safe world; joint action is needed

Dutch researchers and experts from CELTH, the European Tourism Futures Institute, Breda University of Applied Sciences and NBTC made an important contribution to this international report.

A flourishing tourism sector with true zero emissions

The core of the research consists of an exploration of future scenarios in which the effect of 40 climate interventions on emissions from the tourism sector is determined. The report translated the aims of the global initiative, the Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action in Tourism, to a vision of a flourishing tourism sector that achieves true zero emissions by 2050. The Travel Foundation, therefore, call on all companies involved in tourism and organizations to sign and implement the Glasgow Declaration for Climate Action and contribute to the realization of the zero emissions scenario.

Trillions of investments needed

The researchers have combined a range of interventions and policies to and concluded that only one far-reaching Tourism Decarbonisation Scenario (TDS) can meet the Glasgow Declaration goals. To do this, the sector must invest trillions of dollars worldwide in reducing CO2 emissions. That may seem like a lot, but it can already be achieved by investing 2% to 3% of turnover in emission-free road and rail transport, electric zero-emissions accommodation and the production of e-fuels. Also, the aviation sector needs to invest trillions to develop a new range of aircraft powered by combinations of hydrogen, fuel cells and electric engines. If you do what you can, your reward is return to growth.  The tourism sector is not only on the move for a global goal but also for its survival. Unmitigated climate change would lead to a three-plus degrees Celsius world with devastating impacts of extreme weather events, sea-level rise, floods, droughts, storms and economic decline.

Growth still possible

The fact that tourism can still grow its number of trips, overnight stays and revenue in the Tourism Decarbonisation Scenario is a major argument for the tourism sector to no longer hesitate. That doesn't mean everything can stay the same. The big difference between the Business as Usual Scenario (BUA) and the Tourism Decarbonisation Scenario (TDS) is that growth comes from segments other than aviation and long-haul travel. In other parts of tourism, there are plenty of options for growth. Growth in that scenario is driven by alternative modes of transportation such as rail, bus, ferry, and (electric) cars and comes even more from short and medium-haul travel as in the business-as-usual scenario would already be the case. Aviation on the other hand will indeed follow a slower growth trajectory until it can fully decarbonize.

Global action needed

The report also calls for a global plan to optimize tourism’s growth and distribution of visitor flows in a way that is equitable and compatible with climate targets, given that limits on the number of flights are needed. Whatever the policy to achieve zero-growth of aviation, it needs to take into account a fair distribution of the benefits of aviation. Without this, the modelling shows that emissions from longest-haul flights will quadruple by 2050, accounting for 41% of tourism’s total emissions, yet only 4% of trips. The report provides a range of concrete measures to facilitate the transition:

• Governments should include aviation emissions from the fuel tinkered within their country in their Paris Agreement plans (NDCs; national determined Contributions).
• Tourist boards and travel companies should target a greater proportion of short-haul customers and move away from the longest haul visitors.
• Policymakers must invest in ground transport trips by train, electric car, fuel cell busses and other greener forms of transport and the travel industry should adopt and promote them.
• The tourism sector should move away from further increases of their dependency on aviation, particularly long-haul flights.
• The international aviation sector should stick to a pathway of introducing e-fuels with about 50% mixing mandates by 2035-2040 and 99% by 2050.

Other strict requirements are complete electrification of ground-based transport and accommodations and decarbonisation of electricity production. Finally, if the tourism sector wants to create long-term aviation growth prospects, then ICAO should for instance sharpen its CO2-standard for new aircraft types by say 50% lower carbon-based fuel use causing that no new kerosene-based aircraft types can be developed and thus enforcing zero-emissions aircraft technology. 

Leaders from the travel sector support the publication of Envisioning Tourism in 2030 and the call for global coordination to change how we travel and accelerate net-zero tourism:

“Reports and research like this from the Travel Foundation and its collaborators are critical calls to action for governments, investors, consumers and donors. We all need to be on the same page. Collective actions and coalitions of the willing are fundamental building blocks for tourism futures.”

Shaun Mann, Senior Tourism Specialist, World Bank Group

“This new research helps us better understand our collective path forward and align around action. At Expedia Group, we are committed to mobilizing our vast global network of travelers, partners, and peers to raise awareness for more sustainable and responsible travel choices. Our social impact and sustainability strategy aims to address ways the industry mitigates and adapts to climate change and travel.”

Tessa Lee, Senior Manager, Climate and Sustainability, Expedia Group

“We call on the entire tourism industry to coordinate efforts, work together and seek the most successful tools worldwide to advance in the task of reducing emissions. The task is enormous but taking action as soon as possible will allow effective results to be achieved in the medium and long term.”

Verónica Kunze, Undersecretary of Tourism, Government of Chile

Doing nothing is not an option

If the policy remains unchanged, the researchers outline a highly undesirable climate scenario. Tourism is currently responsible for 8% to 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Towards 2050, tourism is expected to double, which will also lead to a doubling of emissions if behaviour does not change. To achieve a 1.5 ° C world, all emissions have to fall substantially. If tourism fails to achieve these reductions, it may consume up to 66% of the remaining climate budget in 2050 leaving very little room for all other sectors and households in the world to reduce their emissions in a reasonable way. Transport is responsible for 75% of all emissions within tourism. That is where most effects can be achieved.

Aviation must reduce fossil dependency

For the aviation industry, the researchers have a mixed message. The aviation sector currently has its hopes in offset programs, electrification, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF; almost only bio-based and biological waste-based) and taxation. However, research shows that compensation programs do not effectively reduce emissions, the electrification of transport and certainly of aviation is coming far too late, the availability of bio-based SAF is limited, not 100% effective and posing serious risks to sustainability and biodiversity and taxes do reduce growth but cannot reduce emissions to zero without destroying the sector.

The only feasible scenario is that aviation should temporarily not grow any more until they can fly decarbonized. The million-dollar question is how aviation’s growth could be stopped. One option is a global slots limitation including an international negotiation space for the distribution of the remaining slots. Another would be to increasingly tighten carbon content requirements for jet fuel. Then the amount of non-fossil jet fuel will determine the growth of aviation. Including aviation into the national mitigation plans, the NDCs, would certainly help to shift aviation policies to include its emissions. Finally, both destinations and tour operators/travel agencies as well as Online Travel Agencies should try to reduce their dependency on aviation in general and on long-haul flights in particular.

Encouraging message for tourism

It is encouraging for the tourism sector that both trips, nights and revenues growth is perfectly possible in the TDS scenario. Growth opportunities exist for short-haul trips, which would increase their share from 69% now to 81% in 2050. The share of long haul must then fall from 6% to 3%, which means the absolute number of those flights stays roughly as it was in 2019. Aviation can still grow slowly in the TDS scenario, but at a slower pace than was usual in the past.

Read further?

For the international press release and the underlying report, we would like to refer you to the website of the Travel Foundation. You can download the detailed summary below.