Dutch knowledge key in international climate study for tourism

Just one scenario for tourism meets climate ‘net-zero’ goal

With global tourism set to double in size by 2050 from 2019 levels, current strategies that rely solely on carbon offsetting, technological efficiencies and biofuels are woefully inadequate. Such measures alone will fail to meet the Paris Agreement-aligned goals to halve emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest. Instead, global policymakers and climate planners attending COP27 are urged to combine all those measures with huge investments and incentives for the greenest forms of transport, and limits on the most polluting. This is the only scenario that can provide comparable levels of revenue and opportunities to travel in a decarbonising world. The report emphasises the huge undertaking required to achieve this future, but show it is technically possible, if the will is there.

More than 30 years of research expertise

These are the main findings from a soon-to-be-released report, Envisioning Tourism in 2030, published by the Travel Foundation, a leading global NGO that works in partnership with governments, businesses, and communities to develop and manage tourism in a way that maximizes the benefits for communities and the environment. The study has been conducted by experts from CELTH, Breda University of Applied Sciences, the European Tourism Futures Institute, and the Netherlands Board of Tourism and Conventions. The study brought together more than 30 years of research expertise on the role of tourism in climate change. Without that experience it was not possible to reach this result within the available time and budget. This study is a perfect example of the importance of building knowledge on knowledge, but was not possible without the support and input form the Travel Foundation and other industry parners. The researchers conclude that destinations and tourism businesses must take action now to identify new opportunities and build resilience to changes in visitor patterns, potential new restrictions and regulation, and the worsening impacts of climate change.

Business as usual not viable

“It’s clear that business as usual for tourism is neither desirable nor viable,” said Menno Stokman, Director at the Centre of Expertise Leisure, Tourism & Hospitality (CELTH). “Climate impacts are already here, increasing in frequency and severity, with monumental costs for humanity and the environment that affect tourism more than most other sectors. Current decarbonisation strategies will reach net zero far too late. So we must reshape the system. From a climate perspective, once we reach net zero we can travel as much as we like. Huge investment will get us there within a decade for shorter-distance trips. But for long-haul we need more time, and we should take this into account as tourism plans its future.”

The researchers share theirs results with the industry on November 16 together with the Travel Foundation and NBTC in the webinar 'Envisioning a Net Zero Future for Tourism and how to plan for it'. You can register via: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_rmD_q_FCSpizCtudDSnMhg

Sophisticated ‘systems modelling’ technique used

The team behind the report have used a sophisticated ‘systems modelling’ technique to explore future scenarios for global travel and tourism. They found only one decarbonisation scenario that could match current growth forecasts, approximately doubling revenue and trips in 2050 from 2019 levels. This scenario is achieved through trillion-dollar investments in all available decarbonisation measures and by prioritising trips which can reduce emissions most readily – for instance those by road and rail. Some limits must also be applied to aviation growth until it is fully able to decarbonise, in particular capping the longest-distance trips to 2019 levels. These made up just 2% of all trips in 2019 but are, by far, the most polluting. If left unchecked, they will quadruple by 2050, accounting for 41% of tourism’s total emissions (up from 19% in 2019) yet still just 4% of all trips.

Read the full article on the website of the Travel Foundation.