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Forecasting models seem to hold great promise when it comes to estimating tourism pressure at a destination at national, regional and local level. They may be able to help in better assessing where visitor flows may result into crowding.
Balance between economy, people and environment
An insight into expected visitor flows (and tourism pressure) can be very desirable as a policy and control instrument for a responsible tourism destination. This is due to the pursuit of a more sustainable balance between resident, visitor, entrepreneur and environment with an eye for the carrying capacity of the area.
Avoid crowded places due to COVID-19
Current events also require insight into tourism pressure. Many safety regions in tourist areas want to know how many overnight visitors and day visitors are expected to be present in a particular region and which activities they are undertaking. This way, the health and safety of the inhabitants can be guaranteed in the light of COVID-19.
Unique predictive data-centric model
Despite the potential of prediction models, practice shows that many studies are limited to mostly ad hoc, descriptive and explanatory research. A predictive (and possibly prescriptive) data-centric model would be the next step in the data maturity of the tourism and leisure sector, but is still virtually unexplored territory.
Our data heart beats with expectation
To take that next step, we are working within the Data & Development Lab Destination Netherlands on a proposal with an experimental character to assess the (im)possibilities of Google search data, web scraping data and GPS data to further investigate the development of forecasting models for tourism pressures.
The results of this project are expected in March 2021. Are you already curious about updates? Please contact us.